The strait holding markets hostage: the Iran-US impasse over Hormuz

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States bombed Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks. Tehran responded by striking American bases in the region and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, the passage carrying roughly 20% of world oil trade has become the great lever of the most dangerous crisis in decades.

Five months on, this is the situation: no signed agreement, no full reopening of the strait, a negotiation with variable geometry that advances and retreats day by day.

The format of the negotiation: Oman as intermediary

Iran does not acknowledge talking to Washington. It says so openly: Tehran’s foreign ministry has reiterated that “there are no negotiations with the United States” and that the ongoing talks concern only the nautical management of the strait with Oman. Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei described the negotiations with Muscat as “professional” and “in progress,” and announced that the two sides have agreed on the geographic coordinates of a safe navigation route for commercial vessels.

The White House reads the same situation differently. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters he believed a deal was possible “today or tomorrow” — a statement later contradicted by events. Trump had said the agreement could arrive “as early as Wednesday or Thursday.” It did not.

Yesterday no breakthrough on a temporary peace agreement with Iran. — World Radio WORLD, August 6, 2026

Why the deal isn’t closing

There are at least three unresolved knots, emerging from available diplomatic literature (including the briefing of the British House of Commons):

The nuclear issue. Washington wants Tehran to confirm it will never pursue an atomic weapon and to impose “zero enrichment.” The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — Ali’s son — has a “different view” on this point.

Missiles. Initially the US demanded ballistic disarmament; Trump later softened the position, saying Iran can keep missiles “in relative proportion” to the Gulf states.

Sanctions and frozen funds. Washington has declared there will be no American state investment in Iran and that any unfrozen funds will be limited to purchasing American food and medicine. Tehran has so far not accepted these terms.

Oil between hope and distrust

In the energy market, every statement on Iran moves prices. Today Brent stands at $79.89 a barrel, up 0.55% from the previous close — rising on expectations of an imminent deal, falling when those expectations deflate. This year’s record was set on April 30 at $126.41, the day of peak escalation.

The Unimpresa Research Center estimates Brent between $80 and $84 between August and September, declining toward $79 in October — but the analysis warns that a breakdown in talks would quickly push prices upward. Meanwhile OPEC+ has raised production by 188,000 barrels a day for September, the sixth consecutive monthly increase, seeking to offset the closure of Hormuz with barrels available through other channels.

Up to five million barrels a day continue to flow through the strait’s southern lane, near the coast of Oman, despite sporadic Iranian drone attacks on vessels. It is not normality, but it is the limbo in which markets are moving.

What to expect

An agreement is possible, but Iran’s internal political variables make any forecast uncertain. Mojtaba Khamenei must show he is not bowing to American pressure: a deal too favorable to Washington would be difficult to sell in Tehran. Trump, for his part, needs a lasting drop in oil prices before the November midterm elections. These two political calendars do not easily overlap.

For now, the strait is half open. And diplomacy is a quarter open.