Brussels prepares sanctions against another 1,600 Russian individuals and companies

The new development of the afternoon is not in Berlin but in Wicklow, Ireland, where the Foreign Ministers of the European Union are meeting informally on September 1 and 2. Here High Representative Kaja Kallas stated today that measures are being prepared against another 1,600 individuals and companies linked to Russia’s military-industrial complex. Also today, Kallas summoned the Russian envoy to the Union in Brussels, while France, Finland and Belgium announced they would summon their respective Russian ambassadors. This is reported by tagesschau.de and Deutsche Welle, which cite the High Representative’s statements from September 2.

The background is Germany’s decision. The federal government attributes to Russia the attempted attack with an explosive-laden drone, discovered on August 4 at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt explained that Russian responsibility is inferred from investigative findings, the pattern of the attack, and intelligence information; the government has decided to close a Russian consulate general in Germany, and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul announced a “measured and proportionate” response along with further measures in the intelligence sector. Both accounts come from ZDFheute, which cites the press conferences of the two ministries, and from 20 Minuten, which relies on the dpa news agency.

“We are not at war, but we are the daily target of hybrid warfare.” (transl. from German) — Alexander Dobrindt, German Federal Minister of the Interior

Moscow rejects everything and promises symmetry. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced a “mirror” response to the German sanctions and rejected the accusations; President Vladimir Putin spoke of a serious error on Berlin’s part, claiming that the evidence presented is falsified; Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergej Nechaev called the German accusations absurd. None of the three reactions addresses the substance of the material evidence indicated by the German ministries.

What a Gymnich is, and what it cannot do

An institutional clarification is needed, as it affects the weight of the announcement. The Wicklow meeting is a Gymnich: an informal gathering of Foreign Ministers, hosted by Ireland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence Helen McEntee as part of the Irish presidency of the Council and chaired by Kallas. As the Irish presidency itself notes, Gymnich meetings do not adopt binding decisions. The 1,600 names announced are therefore a list in preparation, not an approved package: the formal step takes place elsewhere.

The meeting also has an expanded composition. The Foreign Ministers of the United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Ukraine were invited; Anita Anand is attending for Ottawa, marking the first time a Canadian Foreign Minister has taken part in a meeting of this kind. This is confirmed in the Global Affairs Canada statement and also appears in the Finnish government’s note on the participation of its own minister.

The agenda, moreover, extends beyond Russia. According to the Irish press (The Journal and The Irish Times), the ministers are discussing the state of Ukraine, future sanctions against Moscow, and possible action on Israeli settlements in the West Bank; also on the agenda are freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the protection of critical undersea infrastructure. Three dossiers that all moved on the same day.

What we don’t know

We do not know the names contained in the list of 1,600 individuals and companies, nor the date on which it will be proposed or adopted. We do not know which Russian consulate general will be closed in Germany: the reports indicate the decision, not the location. It is not known what form Moscow’s announced “mirror” response will take, nor whether the summoning of Russian ambassadors in Paris, Helsinki and Brussels was coordinated or decided independently. Regarding the German countermeasures, what remains established is only what the two ministries said at the press conference: no independent verification of the investigative evidence is currently available.