Ebola Bundibugyo in Congo: 6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths in ECDC data

On September 3, the Democratic Republic of Congo reported 6,342 confirmed cases of Bundibugyo virus disease and 3,072 related deaths, based on data updated as of September 2. The report comes from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which works on the figures communicated by the Congolese Ministry of Health. There are also 770 patients hospitalized in isolation.

The outbreak has been ongoing since May 2026. The pathogen belongs to the Bundibugyo species: according to the World Health Organization, there is no vaccine or specific treatment for this species. This is significant information for understanding why the health response is focused on case isolation and tracing, and it is not an assessment by this newspaper: it is what has been indicated by the institutional source.

Regarding the risk to Europe, the ECDC considers the probability of infection for people living in the European Union and the European Economic Area to be very low. Here too we report the agency’s assessment, in its own wording: a very low probability is not a zero probability, and risk assessments are updated at every monitoring cycle.

6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths: these are figures communicated by the affected state and relayed by the European agency, not independent findings.

The two sources used are both institutional and distinct: the ECDC’s epidemiological assessment page and the WHO’s emergency page dedicated to the outbreak, which also reports on the activity of the Emergency Committee provided for under the International Health Regulations. The ECDC’s next update on the outbreak is expected today, September 7.

The weekly bulletin. On September 4, the ECDC published its communicable disease threats report for week 36, covering the period from August 29 to September 4. The document updates the situation on Ebola, on the classification of SARS-CoV-2 variants, on West Nile virus, on Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, on dengue, chikungunya, vibrio infections, MERS, malaria and influenza A(H9N2), and contains an overview of respiratory virus epidemiology in the EU/EEA area. The bulletin has a single source, the ECDC itself, which is nonetheless the primary source of the data.

What we don’t know. We do not know the geographic distribution of cases within the country, nor the weekly trend of the curve: the available figures are cumulative. We do not know how many of the 770 patients in isolation are confirmed cases and how many are suspected. We have no data on contacts under surveillance or on tracing coverage. We do not know the analytical content of the weekly report beyond the list of topics covered.

A caveat about cumulative figures applies to epidemics in general: confirmed cases and related deaths grow over time by construction, and an increase in the total does not equate to a worsening of the current phase, just as a stabilization of the total does not equate to the end of the outbreak. Distinguishing between the two requires data by week of onset, which is not available here.

The next checkpoint is set: the ECDC update expected on September 7, which will allow a comparison between the 6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths and the subsequent count.

Sources: ECDC – outbreak in DRC; World Health Organization; ECDC – week 36 report.