Uncertain session in Europe with Brent near $98, ECB awaited
On September 8th, European stock markets closed with little movement while oil returned close to $100 a barrel. On Thursday the ECB meeting, on Friday the US inflation figure.
The September 8, 2026 session closed without a clear direction on European markets. The dominant factor did not come from equities but from commodities: oil returned close to $100 a barrel, with Brent around $98 by the end of the day, and gas rose 3 percent to 75.5 euros per megawatt-hour (Borse.it, AmeVe).
| Indicator | Reading on September 8th |
|---|---|
| Brent | around $98 a barrel |
| Gas | +3%, at 75.5 euros per megawatt-hour |
| 10-year BTP | yield at 4.18% |
| BTP-Bund spread | little moved |
| Euro/dollar | around 1.163 |
| Gold | around $4,450 an ounce |
The bond front
On the government bond market the day was one of stability: the spread between BTPs and Bunds remained little moved and the yield on the Italian 10-year bond stood at 4.18 percent (Borse.it). The combination — energy rising, bonds steady — indicates that the crude oil price increase was not read by the market as a factor capable, on its own, of shifting expectations on rates.
Why oil is moving
The rise in crude is attributed by market reports to tensions in the Gulf. Anz Research analysts, cited in oil market data, note that “The escalation has increased the likelihood of a prolonged stalemate” (AmeVe). This is a third-party assessment, reported as such: this newspaper does not formulate its own forecasts or market guidance.
In the same session, the new round of trade tariffs between the United States and Canada came into effect, as recorded by the day’s financial reports (QuiFinanza).
The yield on the Italian 10-year bond stood at 4.18%, with the spread little moved.
The two appointments of the week
The calendar explains the caution in trading. The European Central Bank meeting is expected on Thursday, September 10th. On Friday the US inflation figure is due, considered relevant ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16th (Borse.it, Il Sole 24 Ore).
The link between these two dates and the price of energy is direct: the cost of crude oil and gas feeds into the energy component of price indices, with transmission times that vary between countries and baskets. The available excerpts contain no estimates on this transmission.
What we don’t know
We do not have the closing percentage changes for individual European indices, nor volume data. We do not know the formalized expectations of operators regarding the ECB’s decision on September 10th: the excerpts indicate the appointment, not forecasts on rates. The consensus figure for US inflation expected on Friday is not available.
The nearest verifiable piece of information is the ECB’s decision on Thursday, September 10th; the subsequent comparison will be with the US prices figure, expected the following day.
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