Hormuz, six months of blocked traffic: transits at lowest levels and negotiations stalled
Transits through the strait remain close to the year's lowest levels according to an analysis of Kpler data; Iran's military command ties passage to authorization from Tehran, while a government source rules out progress on the June agreement. In the background, the consumption of US precision munitions.
The most solid measurement point, in a matter where accounts contradict one another, is the number of ships. An analysis by CNBC based on data from Kpler places the five-day average of transits through the Strait of Hormuz at around thirteen passages, a value close to the lowest recorded since May 12, 2026. The strait has effectively been closed to ordinary commercial traffic since February 28, 2026, and the convoys that do pass do so under naval escort.
On what that number means, the two sides do not agree. The spokesman for Iran’s central Khatam al-Anbia headquarters stated on August 13, in a statement reported by the same CNBC analysis, that passage depends on authorization from Tehran: “No ship can pass safely without Iran’s authorization.” The available material contains no official US position on the state of navigation. Redazione Zero notes the divergence between the transit data and its interpretation, and does not arbitrate it: that number measures passages, not the reasons why they do not occur.
The second element concerns the negotiations. Live coverage by CNN, which draws on a Reuters dispatch, reports a senior Iranian government official as saying that the United States’ return to the interim agreement reached in June is stalled: “On this point there has been no progress.” The source is anonymous and the assessment is from the Iranian side; it should be read as such. No US statements to the contrary on the state of the negotiations appear in the available material.
The regional picture remains fluid. The August 14 briefing by the Anadolu agency reports the United Arab Emirates’ condemnation of an attack on two oil tankers in the strait. This is a significant signal because it comes from a Gulf country that is not a direct party to the conflict. The available material does not attribute the attack.
The third strand concerns the material sustainability of the conflict for the US side. The current events portal on Wikipedia, drawing on reporting by Military Times and Reuters, reports that the US military would have expended most of its stockpiles of ATACMS and Precision Strike missiles over the course of the war, including in the operation codenamed Epic Fury. The conditional is necessary: this is a press report, not an official communication from the Department of Defense, and no institutional confirmation appears in the material consulted. If confirmed, it would indicate that a five-and-a-half-month campaign has eroded reserves that are replenished on industrial, not military, timescales.
On the US domestic political front, the same Anadolu briefing reports that the Senate minority leader has called for the removal of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The request concerns his conduct in the public role he holds; the available material does not specify detailed reasons, and this newspaper does not reconstruct them by inference.
Three stated unknowns remain: who struck the two oil tankers, what Washington’s official position is on the state of the interim negotiations, and whether the figures on missile stockpiles will be confirmed by an institutional source. One verifiable parameter remains: a five-day average of about thirteen transits, with the blockade set to reach six months on August 28.
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