Ebola in eastern DRC: WHO counts nearly 4,500 confirmed cases and over 2,000 deaths

The figures released by the World Health Organization on the ongoing epidemic in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo stand at nearly 4,500 confirmed cases and more than 2,000 deaths. At the press conference in Geneva on August 12, the organization’s director-general stated that the progression is occurring at an unprecedented speed and that the epidemic could exceed, in scale, the 2014-2016 West Africa crisis. As this is an ongoing event, the figures reported here are the most recent verifiable at the time of publication and are subject to change.

The epidemic was declared on May 14, 2026 in Ituri province and is the seventeenth recorded in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In the same month, the WHO classified the outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern, the highest category provided for under the international health regulations.

The element that distinguishes this outbreak from previous ones is the pathogen. It is not the Zaire species, the one on which immunization campaigns of recent years have focused, but the Bundibugyo virus. The difference is not a minor detail: the only licensed Ebola vaccine, Ervebo, has no proven efficacy against this species. A WHO technical advisory group has recommended that the product be evaluated in a randomized clinical trial specifically against the Bundibugyo virus. This is the point that must be read precisely: it is a recommendation to conduct a trial, not the result of one.

The limits of what is known must be stated. The randomized study in question has not yet been conducted: there is therefore no sample, no protocol, no trial phase, and no conflict-of-interest disclosure to report, because there is no result to assess. At present there are no published efficacy data on this viral species, and no randomized protocol has produced conclusions. Until that study is designed, conducted, and peer-reviewed, any assessment of the protection conferred remains without experimental basis. The epidemic’s figures also have a precise nature: they are surveillance counts collected during an ongoing emergency, not the outcome of controlled research, and they describe what reporting systems detect, not necessarily the full extent of infections that have occurred.

The second element concerns surveillance. The WHO reported that transmission had already begun in February, months before the official declaration, and that some cases had initially been attributed to malaria and typhoid fever. This is a finding that describes a structural problem rather than an isolated error: hemorrhagic fevers begin with symptoms that overlap with those of the most common diseases in the region, and without laboratory confirmation clinical distinction is difficult. The diagnostic delay translates into weeks of untraced transmission chains, and the growth rate observed in the subsequent phase must also be read in light of that hidden starting point.

In terms of information verification, this dossier rests on three distinct sources: the WHO press conference of August 12, reported by Radio Okapi; a joint WHO and Africa CDC statement, reported by UN News; and the situation reports of the Institut National de Santé Publique of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The first two partly share the same issuing institution, which reduces the real independence of the cross-check; the Congolese national data constitute the primary source for the case count.

It should also be noted what the available material does not allow one to state. Not documented here is the distribution of cases by health zone, the number of infected healthcare workers, or the state of response funding. The sources indicate a figure for cases defined as confirmed, but do not specify the classification criteria adopted, nor whether alongside that count there exists a separate tally of probable or suspected cases: on this point the data remain incomplete.

The comparison invoked by the WHO director-general provides the order of magnitude of the problem. The 2014-2016 West Africa epidemic remains the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded. The operational difference, today, is that in 2026 a licensed vaccine exists — but for a species different from the one circulating in Ituri, and its evaluation against the Bundibugyo virus is still at the stage of a recommendation to conduct a study.

Sources: Radio Okapi (WHO press conference in Geneva, August 12, 2026); UN News (joint WHO and Africa CDC statement); Wikipedia in English, entry on the 2026 epidemic (situation reports of the DRC’s Institut National de Santé Publique).