2027 budget, the price tag of two promises: 1.2 billion for personal income tax, 1.1 for pensions
Work has begun on the last budget law of the legislature. The main hypothesis extends the 33% rate up to 60,000 euros in income; on the European front the government is aiming for 35-36 billion in flexibility between energy and defence. Two dates: September 22 and October 15.
This morning the Italy section dealt with the suspension of Schengen with Spain. What occupies the afternoon is something else, and it concerns the accounts: the government has begun preparing the 2027 budget law, the last before the general election, and the hypotheses in circulation already carry an indicated price.
The fiscal measure under study consists of extending the second personal income tax bracket, bringing the levy on income between 50,000 and 60,000 euros down from 43% to 33%. According to ANSA’s reconstruction, the measure is worth about 1.2 billion euros. The same reconstruction includes the second heavy item: avoiding the one-month increase in the retirement age scheduled from 2027 would cost 1.1 billion.
| Hypothesis under study | Indicated cost |
|---|---|
| Personal income tax rate at 33% up to 60,000 euros | about 1.2 billion |
| Blocking the one-month increase in the retirement age from 2027 | about 1.1 billion |
| Flexibility requested from the European Union | 35-36 billion |
On the scope of beneficiaries, Fanpage estimates at about 3.3 million the taxpayers who declare over 50,000 euros and who would fall within the cut. The figure describes the potential pool, not the amount of the individual benefit, which depends on where the income falls within the bracket.
The package also includes the extension of the 5% substitute tax on wage increases linked to contract renewals, a measure already introduced with the 2026 budget for incomes up to 33,000 euros (ANSA; Il Sole 24 Ore). The three items — taxes, pensions, contract renewals — press on the same budget space. The reconstructions used here do not indicate the resources with which the measures would be financed: on this point the piece has no elements available.
The European channel
The second part of the game is not played in Rome. The Ministry of Economy is aiming to activate the European safeguard clause, requesting 0.6% of gross domestic product in flexibility for energy and 0.9% cumulative through 2028 for defence: in absolute terms, 35-36 billion overall, of which about 14 for energy and 21-22 for defence (Panorama; Professione Lavoro).
A favorable revision has arrived on the macroeconomic picture: the Parliamentary Budget Office has raised the 2026 gross domestic product growth estimate from 0.5% to 0.9%, confirming 0.6% for 2027. It is an institution independent from the government, and the upward revision concerns the current year, not the year of the budget law.
The two dates that matter
The calendar sets two close appointments. On September 22 the certification of the deficit-to-gross domestic product ratio for 2026 is expected. On October 15 the deadline expires for sending the Draft Budgetary Plan to Brussels.
The link between the two figures is direct: if the deficit were to remain at 3.1%, it would not be possible to close the excessive deficit procedure early. That one-tenth of a point above the 3% threshold is what separates an ordinary negotiation from one conducted under procedure, and it falls three weeks before the delivery of the draft budgetary plan.
Everything written above concerns working hypotheses reconstructed from government sources and public finance documents, not legislative texts: the 2027 budget law does not yet have a public draft. The first verifiable event on the calendar is the September 22 certification.
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