OPEC+ meets today, first appointment after the end of the rollback from voluntary cuts

This newspaper’s morning edition looked at the price of crude oil; the afternoon edition looks at who decides how much crude to put on the market. The seven countries of the OPEC+ group meet today, September 6, to review market conditions: the date had been set in the OPEC’s official communiqué of August 2.

What was decided on August 2

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman had agreed on an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September, the sixth consecutive month of increase. That decision completed the rollback from the voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day introduced in 2023, as reported by CNBC and as confirmed by the reconstruction of Energy Connects, both based on the group’s communiqué.

August’s text, however, contained no indication regarding quotas for the last quarter of 2026. This is the gap that today’s meeting can fill, or leave open. In the background there is a second undertaking: the group is conducting a review of the production capacities of its members, which will serve to set the basis for 2027 quotas. It is a technical step with direct political consequences, because the capacity recognized for each country determines the weight of its quota.

The material gathered by the editorial staff also includes the assessment of analyst Jorge Leon, who indicates as the next issue the management of the supply surplus that could emerge with the normalization of export flows. The organization he works for does not appear in the excerpts in our possession, and for this reason we do not indicate it: the assessment is reported as a third-party position, with the professional attribution unverified. This newspaper does not formulate its own price forecasts.

The market context

The meeting comes at a time when oil remains close to weekly highs due to the attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, which this edition’s opening covers on the military level.

On the stock markets, Thursday September 3’s session on Wall Street recorded a recovery:

Index	Close September 3	Change
Dow Jones	53,686.11	+1.18%
S&P 500	7,747.71	+1.06%
Nasdaq	26,584.06	+1.40%
FTSE MIB	52,245.47	+0.88%

The VIX index, which measures expected volatility, fell 5.79% to 14.32. The rise was attributed to statements by Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller about a possible further decline in inflation, according to the closing summary from Cicli e ASC Trading on Wall Street and Borsa Italiana data. That oil remains high for geopolitical reasons while stock indices rise for monetary reasons is a divergence worth keeping in mind: the two movements have different causes and do not explain each other. The picture on crude oil at the start of the week is described by ANSA.

What we do not know

At the time of publication, the outcome of the meeting is not known: we do not know whether the group will decide on a further increase, a pause or a postponement, nor whether it will publish indications for the final quarter. We do not know the status of the production capacity review nor when its results will be made public. Finally, we do not know the effect of the war in the Strait on actually exported volumes, given that August’s communiqué concerns agreed quotas and not deliveries. The document to read is the group’s communiqué at the conclusion of today’s meeting.