Saxony-Anhalt: AfD at 43.8%, three seats short of majority

The provisional result of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt assigns the AfD 43.8% and 39 seats out of 83: three short of the absolute majority, set at 42. It is the party’s best result in a regional election, more than double the 20.8% obtained in 2021. We wrote about election day on September 6, when polling stations were still open.

The second figure of the vote is the CDU. The party of minister president Sven Schulze goes from 37.1% to 17.2%: its lowest result in a regional election in Saxony-Anhalt. Behind it, four parties are arranged within just over four points: SPD at 9.3%, Greens at 8.9%, Linke at 8.6%, BSW at 5.3% in its first entry into the regional parliament. The FDP remains out, with 2.6%.

The third figure concerns turnout, and it runs counter to the trend prevailing in German regional elections in recent years: 77.8% against 60.3% in 2021, the highest value since reunification, out of an electorate of just under 1.7 million people. Seventeen and a half points more mean that the comparison between the 2021 percentages and yesterday’s is not a comparison between the same voters: a substantial share of those who voted yesterday had stayed home five years ago.

The new Landtag has 83 seats distributed among six groups. Government formation in the region hinges on this arithmetic: the five forces other than the AfD together add up to 44 seats, two above the majority threshold. An alliance including CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and BSW would therefore be possible in terms of numbers, but it would require the agreement of five parties ranging from the center-right to the left, with a margin of two votes. Before the vote all parties had ruled out coalitions with the AfD.

On the front of the leading party, co-chair Alice Weidel read the result as a binding indication: “This is a completely clear governing mandate” (transl. from German). The statement is a partisan position, not an automatic consequence of the seat count: with 39 deputies out of 83, the AfD cannot form a government alone nor, based on the positions announced before the vote, with others.

The figures reported here are provisional and come from the regional electoral office; the final result may differ after the customary checks, and the distribution of seats remains tied to the final count. At present the count stands as follows: 39 seats to the AfD, 44 to the other five forces combined, majority at 42.

Sources: Landeswahlleiterin Sachsen-Anhalt; ZDFheute; Der Tagesspiegel.