Crude oil above one hundred dollars, EIA sees inventories declining through year-end

The oil market has broken through one psychological threshold and immediately added another. On September 9, 2026, Brent surpassed 100 dollars a barrel for the first time since May; the following day futures on the international benchmark rose 2.78% to 104.41 dollars according to data reported by Forbes Advisor, while at 8 a.m. New York time Fortune’s reading showed 105.20 dollars, up 3.15 from the previous day and about 37.30 dollars above the level of a year ago.

In the same move, U.S. diesel futures touched their highest level in over five months: this is the segment that passes through most quickly to transport costs and, from there, to final prices.

Reference	Value	Source
Brent, September 10 (+2.78%)	104.41 dollars	Forbes Advisor
Brent, 8 a.m. New York time, September 10	105.20 dollars	Fortune
Global crude average, August 2026	91 dollars	EIA
Brent forecast, second half 2026	about 90 dollars	EIA
Brent forecast, 2027 average	74 dollars	EIA

The year’s scale. A single price says little: over the past twelve months Brent has moved between an intraday low of 54.97 dollars, touched on December 17, 2025, and a high of 119.47 dollars, recorded on March 9, 2026. Current levels therefore sit in the upper part of the range, though not at its extreme.

Among the factors cited by traders in readings from Trading Economics and Energy Intelligence’s pricing service Energy Intelligence are the escalation between the United States and Iran, a 0.3 million barrel drop in U.S. inventories, and the Ukrainian drone attack on Novorossiysk infrastructure. Three different factors — geopolitics, inventories, infrastructure — pushing in the same direction.

The American agency’s reading. The Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook sets the global average crude oil price at 91 dollars a barrel for August 2026, 7 dollars higher than July. The explanation given by the agency is the decline in global petroleum inventories, which it forecasts will continue falling through the end of 2026. For Brent spot prices, the EIA estimates about 90 dollars in the second half of 2026 and an average of 74 dollars in 2027: the projected curve, then, is downward — but it starts from a level that current prices have already exceeded.

There is also an indicator directly concerning distillates, meaning diesel and related products: the agency forecasts that U.S. inventories will fall below 100 million barrels in September and remain below the 2021-2025 five-year minimum for much of 2027. It is the tension on this segment, more than on crude itself, that explains why diesel contracts are running faster than the barrel.

What we don’t know. The EIA’s forecasts are scenarios built on supply and demand assumptions that the document itself revises month by month: they are not commitments and do not incorporate developments from the latest hours in the Gulf. The available material contains no breakdown of the rise between geopolitical premium and fundamentals, nor data on the effect already visible in European consumer prices. This newspaper makes no recommendations: it reports the estimates, with the name of those who sign them.

The calendar provides the next verifiable check: the EIA’s August estimates will be comparable with the following month’s reading, while the value of Brent is observable every day.