IEA cuts crude oil demand and supply, US inflation rises on a monthly basis
The International Energy Agency's September report projects global supply of 100.7 million barrels per day in 2026. In the United States, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August.
The oil market is tightening from both sides, and the International Energy Agency’s September Oil Market Report puts numbers to it.
On the supply side, the 2026 projection falls to 100.7 million barrels per day: 5.7 million less than the previous year and 1.3 million less than the same agency estimated a month ago. In August, global production fell by 1.6 million barrels per day compared to July, settling at 100.1 million, with more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf capacity unavailable for security reasons.
On the demand side, the movement is in the same direction but with a different sign in the revision: global consumption is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, about 940 thousand barrels per day more than the previous month’s estimate. For 2027 the agency forecasts a recovery of 2.6 million barrels per day, which would narrowly offset the year’s losses.
The price responded: on September 10 Brent crude rose above the 105-dollar-per-barrel threshold, according to data reported by Forbes Italia.
| Item | IEA estimate, September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Global supply 2026 | 100.7 mb/d (−5.7 year-on-year) |
| Revision from previous month | −1.3 mb/d |
| Global demand 2026 | −2.5 mb/d |
| August production | 100.1 mb/d (−1.6 month-on-month) |
| Idle Gulf capacity | over 10 mb/d |
The second data point: US prices
3.4% annually and 0.4% monthly, seasonally adjusted: these are the two variations in US consumer prices for August, released on September 11, 2026 by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are reported by Focus America and Ekonomia.it, based on the statement from the federal statistics agency.
This is the largest monthly increase in the last three months, consistent with economists’ expectations; the core component, however, accelerated beyond expectations on a monthly basis. Further up the chain, the producer price index for August had risen 5.4% year-on-year.
The third figure concerns expectations, which in the transmission of inflation matter as much as realized prices. The University of Michigan’s early September survey shows household confidence at 47.8 points; in the same survey, expected inflation over twelve months stands at 4.6%, and over the five-year horizon at 3.4%.
The link, and its limits
The connection between the two halves of this piece is evident but should not be forced: the available sources do not attribute the acceleration in US prices to crude oil, and this newspaper does not do so in their place. What can be said is that the two measurements are contemporaneous and that, within the International Energy Agency’s framework, the share of idle Gulf production — over 10 million barrels per day — is attributed to security risks, without the available excerpts specifying their nature.
On the monetary policy front, the material available contains no decisions or statements from US central bank officials: the piece stops at the published data and does not anticipate scenarios on rates.
What we don’t know
We do not know the precise value of the US core component or its annual variation, we do not have the breakdown by spending category of the price index, and we do not have an IEA breakdown by country of those that have reduced production. The confirmed reference points remain those from September 11: consumer prices at +0.4% monthly and +3.4% annually, global supply projected at 100.7 million barrels per day for 2026.
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