Flu vaccines 2026-2027, Europe moves to three strains and Italy starts in October
A story the morning press did not tell: the EMA has indicated three strains for the season, following the withdrawal of B/Yamagata. The Ministry of Health circular sets the start of the campaigns at the beginning of October.
The Northern Hemisphere flu season begins with a technical decision that affects millions of doses: vaccine composition. On February 27, 2026, the World Health Organization published its recommendations for the 2026-2027 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccines. The European Medicines Agency then indicated three viral strains to be included in vaccines intended for the European market: this is reported by Quotidiano Sanità, while the Italian framework is reconstructed from the pages of EpiCentro, the portal of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, which reports the ministerial circular and the international recommendations.
Why there are three strains
The shift to trivalent formulations has a documented reason: the B/Yamagata strain has not been detected in circulation since March 2020 and no longer appears in the recommendations. Among the strains indicated for the season is a virus similar to A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09.
It is worth explaining the mechanism, because it is what makes influenza different from other preventable diseases: vaccine composition is redefined every year based on surveillance of circulating viruses, and the decision for the Northern Hemisphere is made in winter for products that will be administered the following autumn. It is a forecast, and like any forecast it may turn out to be more or less consistent with what actually circulates.
The Italian timeline
The Ministry of Health circular of June 23, 2026 sets the operational guidelines for Italy: it recommends starting vaccination campaigns at the beginning of October, specifying that the offer remains available at any time during the season. Recommendations by age group and for at-risk groups are contained in the same document.
Regarding coverage targets, the reference is the Piano nazionale di prevenzione vaccinale, which for the population over 65 indicates a minimum coverage of 75% and an optimal coverage of 95%.
| PNPV target, over 65 | Value |
|---|---|
| Minimum coverage | 75% |
| Optimal coverage | 95% |
These are programmatic thresholds, not results: they measure the system’s ambition, not its performance. The material consulted does not report the coverage levels actually achieved in previous seasons, and without that data the comparison cannot be made.
The scope of this piece
Redazione Zero reports on health policies, decisions by regulatory bodies and recommendations from identified authorities. It does not issue guidance on what to do: that is the responsibility of health authorities and professionals, and in this article they appear only as attributed acts — the WHO published, the EMA indicated, the Ministry recommended.
What we don’t know
From the available material, the full names of the three recommended strains do not emerge: we know one of them. The quantities of doses purchased by Italian regions do not emerge, nor the exact start date in individual regional administrations, which decide autonomously within the national guidance. No data emerges on the current trend of viral circulation at this point in the season.
The fixed data point is the institutional sequence: WHO recommendation of February 27, EMA’s indication of the three strains, ministerial circular of June 23, campaigns starting at the beginning of October.
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