World oil demand falls by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026

World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, and by 2.6 million barrels per day on average over the whole of 2026, according to the October Oil Market Report published by the International Energy Agency. The report, updated as of October 2026, measures a phenomenon moving on a scale of millions of barrels per day, the standard unit with which the agency has tracked global oil market trends for years.

On the supply side, the report records an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day on a monthly basis, with the world total reaching 102.3 million barrels per day in September, driven by Gulf producers. This is a recovery that brings supply back above recent levels, but one the agency itself describes as fragile.

“Renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile” (transl. from English) — International Energy Agency

On the refined products front, the report notes that diesel prices have fallen from September’s records, when they had exceeded 200 dollars per barrel, but according to the agency remain nearly double the price of crude oil and pre-crisis levels, as also reported by Eastern Herald, citing the same data.

The limitation the agency itself acknowledges concerns precisely the fragility of the supply-side recovery: September’s increase is not presented as a consolidated figure, but as a recovery that new attacks in the Gulf could interrupt at any moment, with the report not quantifying a specific margin of error on its own projections of a demand decline for the whole of 2026. A gap therefore remains between a falling demand figure and a recovering but geopolitically exposed supply.