Israel votes for the Knesset, Likud and Yashar neck and neck

At 7 a.m. local time this morning, polling stations opened in Israel for the renewal of the twenty-sixth Knesset. This is the first time the country has returned to the polls since the attack of October 7, 2023, a circumstance that alone is enough to define the political weight of this vote.

According to data reported by the ANSA news agency, approximately 7 million 331 thousand Israelis are called to vote, with polling stations remaining open until 10 p.m. local time. Three independent sources — ANSA, the TgCom24 newsroom and the official portal of the Israeli Central Elections Committee, The State of Israel — converge on the same expected turnout data and the same voting procedures, offering a consistent picture of election day.

The campaign that closes today has been marked by a contest that polls describe as wide open between two blocs. The Yashar party, founded around the figure of former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is credited by opinion polls with 22-23 seats, ahead of the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu, given between 19 and 21. A narrow gap, which places the result within the typical margin for this kind of projection and leaves several scenarios open regarding the final composition of the assembly.

What makes this round different from previous ones is not only the uncertainty of the result indicated by the polls, but the context in which it arrives: three years in which the issue of national security has occupied Israeli public debate almost constantly. The projected success for Yashar, a movement built around a former military chief rather than a traditional party, is read as a sign of an electorate that is redistributing trust within the same political camp, rather than shifting it toward the opposing camp.

On the procedural front, the Central Elections Committee has announced that it will publish the official results within eight days of the vote, setting the deadline at November 4. This is an interval that reflects the checks provided for under the Israeli electoral system — including the counting of votes from soldiers and citizens abroad, which is historically slower — and which leaves the negotiations for forming a government open for several weeks, once the polls close and the final count is certified.

Today’s vote is therefore measured on two levels that will remain distinct until the final data is published: the immediate level of turnout and the evening’s projections, and the slower level of official certification, which will come only on the 8th day after the vote. Until then, the figures circulating will be projections based on exit polls and not the consolidated result that the Election Commission is required to publish by the stated deadline.

One fact remains verifiable from the outset: with a gap of just a few seats between the two camps according to the latest surveys, the threshold of 22-23 seats for Yashar versus 19-21 for Likud does not automatically guarantee a majority for either side without the contribution of the smaller lists, whose weight will only become clear once the count is complete.