Israel, the count moves forward: Netanyahu at 53 seats, Eisenkot at 48, no one close to a majority

The actual count of the Israeli elections has overtaken the snapshot from last night. After the tie indicated by the exit polls released at dawn on Wednesday, the data from the real count show a different picture: at 14:32 on October 28, 4,854,102 valid votes had been counted in 11,168 polling stations, according to data from the Israeli Central Elections Committee reported by the Bakalpi website. On this basis, the estimate gives 53 seats to the bloc of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 48 to that of rival Gadi Eisenkot and 19 to the Arab parties.

Within the two blocs, Netanyahu’s Likud is estimated at 26 seats, while the Yashar list led by Eisenkot stands at 21. Neither reaches on its own the threshold of 61 seats needed to govern in the Knesset, and even by adding allied parties, neither of the two camps currently appears able to surpass it with a clear margin.

Sources do not fully agree on the percentage of ballots already counted: according to CNN, which cites data with nearly 80% of the count completed, neither bloc has a majority. The Walla website, referring to a more advanced count at 85% of votes and 4,875,751 ballots tallied, confirms the same outcome: the majority of 61 seats remains out of reach for both camps.

One element remains pending and could further change the picture: the Elections Committee has estimated between 430,000 and 480,000 double envelopes still to be collected and counted. This is a pool of votes large enough to potentially shift the final seat allocation, especially among smaller parties hovering around the threshold for entry.

Wednesday’s vote was the first Israeli election since the attack of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, a context that had already pointed to an unusually high turnout, as reported in the morning survey. The result, with a narrow gap between the two blocs and a large number of ballots still to be counted, leaves open the possibility that the final outcome could be delayed by days from the vote.

The coming hours will be dedicated precisely to counting the double envelopes: the five-seat gap between the two blocs is, for now, not enough to declare a winner capable of forming a government.