Hormuz, Tehran announces agreement on shipping routes as Washington threatens Oman

Two opposing signals coexist over the Strait of Hormuz at this hour. On one side, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stated that an agreement has been reached on the map of the transit route through the Strait, according to QN. On the other, on August 15 Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman should Muscat interfere on the matter: “If Oman gets in the way on Hormuz, we will bomb it mercilessly.” According to earlier reports, the agreement would provide for the reopening of the passage with ships entering along a route close to the Iranian coast and exiting near the Omani one.

It must be stated clearly that so far the announcement of the agreement comes only from the Iranian side: nothing in the available material confirms it from Muscat or from Washington, and the U.S. threat made two days later suggests the matter is not considered settled by all parties involved. The caution is not merely formal: Tehran itself continues to claim exclusive sovereignty over the passage. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, in public remarks reported by CNBC, wrote: “The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian.” A claim of principle that sits uneasily with the idea of a transit map agreed upon with third parties.

The figure that allows us to measure the gap between the announcements and operational reality comes from UKMTO, the British body that monitors merchant shipping traffic in the area: over the past seven days, passage through the Strait stood at 17% of the average recorded before the conflict, according to CNN. The weekend was even leaner: five tankers transited on Saturday, none on Sunday, compared with thirty-one the previous weekend, according to shipping traffic data cited by Milano Finanza. In other words: whatever the state of the talks, shipowners have not yet resumed lining up tankers before the Strait.

This is the difference that matters in a maritime passage of this kind. A route reopens when insurers agree to cover it and captains agree to sail it, not when a spokesman announces its layout. As long as traffic remains below one-fifth of normal, the practical effect of the declared agreement is nil, and every day of closure weighs on energy markets and transport costs.

The diplomatic picture remains equally open. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on August 15 that Iran has not yet decided whether to resume negotiations with the United States. This means that the channel mediated by Oman — the very actor Trump is threatening — is currently the only instrument in place to manage the passage, and that striking it would eliminate its function. The American threat and the Omani mediation are therefore pulling in opposite directions at the same table.

The economic effect is already measurable thousands of kilometers away. In the United States, the average price of gasoline was $4.07 per gallon on Saturday, August 15, according to AAA, compared with $3.15 a year earlier: an increase of roughly 29% year-on-year, which the American president now faces at home even as he raises his tone against Muscat. The cost of fuel at the pump is today the most direct indicator of how heavily the 17% traffic figure in the Strait is weighing: until that percentage rises again, announcements of agreement remain documents without ships.

Sources: QN – Quotidiano Nazionale; CNBC; CNN; Milano Finanza.