Brent tops 91 dollars, gas above 60 euros: markets price in the Hormuz stalemate

This is a story that this morning’s edition did not contain: at 6:30 the Economy and Markets section was occupied by Unitree’s listing in Shanghai. In the afternoon the price picture shifted elsewhere, and it shifted for the reason told in today’s lead.

In the session of August 19th, Brent gained 0.79%, equal to 0.72 dollars, moving to 91.74 dollars a barrel (Il Sole 24 Ore). According to the Reuters dispatch picked up by Investing.com, this is the highest level in three weeks, and the explanation given is uncertainty over maritime traffic. The movement does not concern crude oil alone: on Amsterdam’s TTF market, gas rose above 60 euros per megawatt-hour.

Item	Figure
Brent (August 19)	91.74 dollars (+0.79%, +0.72)
WTI (close August 18)	around 84.77 dollars (+1.21%)
Gold (August 18)	4,356.6 dollars (−1.59%)
TTF Amsterdam gas	above 60 euros/MWh
BTP-Bund spread	around 80 basis points

The two oil figures refer to different days — Brent to today’s session, WTI to Tuesday’s close — and should be read as such, not as an instantaneous gap between the two benchmarks. The sign, however, is the same: both up, both in a phase in which geopolitical risk is transferring directly onto the cost of energy.

The most interesting movement is the one accompanying crude. On August 18th, gold fell 1.59% to 4,356.6 dollars (Il Messaggero), which means the wave of buying did not take the classic form of a rush to a safe haven. At the same time, yields on long-dated US and European government bonds rose, and the spread between BTP and Bund returned to around 80 basis points. Rising yields and falling gold, at the same moment oil is climbing, describe a market that is revising its inflation expectations rather than seeking protection.

Onto this is grafted the United States’ budget problem. Interest on federal public debt, close to 40,000 billion dollars, has cost 1,200 billion dollars in 2026 so far. Within the same picture, Fitch confirmed the US sovereign rating at “AA+”, citing the economy’s resilience and the dollar’s status, but flagging at the same time high deficits and rising interest expenses. It is a confirmation that carries a warning: the rating holds, the factors putting it under pressure are named.

The day also carries an institutional agenda. On August 19th the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve’s committee, are expected, along with Bank of Italy data on the balance of payments and the international investment position (Teleborsa). Expectations regarding the US central bank had already weighed on European stock exchanges in previous sessions, with selling in the technology sector (Adnkronos).

The minutes therefore arrive on a day when the price of energy has moved for reasons no central bank controls. If the rise in crude consolidates, the part of the reasoning on inflation contained in the minutes will turn out to have been written before the fact that matters. The figure to watch in coming sessions is Brent’s: the 91-dollar threshold was crossed today for the first time in three weeks.