Nepal, the Bhote Koshi flood and figures that do not match

On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, between 8.30 and 9 a.m. local time, a sudden flood wave on the Bhote Koshi river struck Rasuwa district in northern Nepal, on the border with the Tibet Autonomous Region. The settlements of Syabrubesi and Timure and the Rasuwagadhi border crossing were hit — the main land gateway to Chinese territory for traders, travelers and pilgrims heading to Mount Kailash (Kathmandu Post, Al Jazeera).

What makes this story difficult to report is not the volume of information but its inconsistency. On the same day, Nepal Police reported in the evening the recovery of 157 bodies; CNN and Al Jazeera reported a death toll of at least 160-162 attributed to the national police; the Kathmandu Post first published 22 and later 95 deaths; the national disaster risk reduction authority, NDRRMA, counted 72 across seven districts. The divergence does not stem from conflicting accounts: it stems from the fact that each outlet is citing a different agency, and no agency has yet reconciled the others’ counts. “So far 95 deaths have been reported” (transl. from Spanish), said Abi Narayan Kafle (Connectionivoirienne).

The same applies to the missing. The Nepal Tourism Board released a preliminary list of 384 unreachable travelers — 291 foreigners and 93 Nepalis — compiled from reports by ten travel agencies. The Ministry of Tourism then put the figure at 403 tourists, of whom 341 were foreigners, and the Prime Minister’s Office at 484, of whom 391 were foreigners (NBC News). Three figures from the same government within a few hours, each built on a different basis. Among the foreigners, Nepali sources indicate Indian nationals — from 105 to 142 depending on the agency —, as well as Americans, Britons, Australians, Malaysians, South Koreans, Dutch, Portuguese and South Africans. None of these figures should be read as a death toll: they are lists of people who could not be reached, in an area where electricity and telephone service went down.

On the cause too, distinctions are useful. The US Geological Survey had recorded seismic energy shortly before the wave and revised its initial hypothesis of a precursor earthquake, attributing the signal to a landslide. Researchers at ICIMOD in Kathmandu consider it likely that the origin was an ice-and-rock avalanche breaking off a glacier: a working hypothesis, not an established fact (SRF).

The figures on rescue operations are more stable: the Nepali army deployed between 12 and 14 helicopters and states it has rescued 88 people, with more than 3,000 police officers mobilized. The government has asked its two neighbors for support: “We have asked India and China for help with rescue operations” (transl. from English), said Nepali government spokesman Sasmit Pokharel (20 Minuten).

On the Tibetan side, the picture rests entirely on Chinese state media, and should be read as such. According to the Xinhua news agency and CCTV television, cited by SRF and Band, a mudflow reportedly struck the Gyirong border crossing in Shigatse prefecture, leaving three dead and 265 missing and cutting roads, the power grid and telecommunications; Xinhua also reported that 601 rescuers, 113 vehicles and canine units had been deployed, and that Xi Jinping had ordered the search for the missing and the strengthening of early warning systems. The report currently comes from a single source (Chinese state media); no independent confirmation is available, and these elements remain attributed statements, not verified facts.

Commercial and tourist transit between Kathmandu and Tibet passes through this corridor: on the Nepali side, the Rasuwagadhi gateway is among the affected locations, while on the Chinese side CCTV states, based on drone footage, that the access roads to the crossing have reportedly been destroyed.

Sources: Kathmandu Post, Al Jazeera, CNN, NBC News, Connectionivoirienne, SRF, 20 Minuten, Band. Xinhua (Chinese state news agency) and CCTV (Chinese state television) are cited as attribution.