Oil retreats to $86.28, Hormuz transits remain at crisis lows
Brent fell 2.6% on expectations of a partial reopening of the strait. EIA and Vortexa data show flows collapsed from over 20 to around 5 million barrels per day; the IMO has recorded 68 incidents and 19 seafarer deaths.
The price falls, traffic does not. It is the gap between two sets of figures that describes the day on oil markets: expectations of a deal between Iran and Oman to restore transit through the Strait of Hormuz pushed prices down, while data on actual crossings remain at crisis lows.
At 04:47 GMT on August 26 the Brent futures contract traded at $86.28 a barrel: down $2.30, or 2.6%, the lowest value recorded since August 13. This is reported by the Reuters agency in the account picked up by Infobae. The move adds to that of the previous session: on August 25 Brent had already closed down 3.89% at $88.58, as reported by the EFE agency picked up by Noticias de Álava. Over two sessions the European benchmark has therefore lost more than six percentage points, on the basis of an agreement that has not been signed.
Actual flows
On the physical side the picture is different. According to data from Vortexa, the US Energy Information Administration and the International Maritime Organization gathered by Moncloa.com, on August 24 around 5 million barrels a day passed through Hormuz, compared with more than 20 million before the conflict.
| Period | Crude and derivatives in transit (million barrels/day) |
|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2025 | 21.6 |
| First quarter 2026 | 14.9 |
| Second quarter 2026 | 4.9 |
The quarterly figures are EIA estimates. Vessel counts confirm the contraction: in the week ending August 21, 89 units left and 103 entered, while on August 24 only two tankers transited, the lowest daily figure since early May.
The human and insurance cost
The International Maritime Organization has recorded 68 incidents and 19 seafarer deaths since the start of the crisis. These are the figures that make the route a problem not only of volumes but of crews: the IMO is the United Nations agency responsible for shipping safety and the prevention of marine pollution, and its Secretary-General, Arsenio Domínguez, addressed this very issue. In an interview given to the EFE agency in Mexico City and released on August 27, picked up in the Infobae agenda, Domínguez analyzes the risks that the escalation of tensions in the strait poses for world trade and for one of the planet’s most strategic shipping routes.
The full text of the interview is not available among the sources consulted: its subject is known, not the answers given. This is a limitation that must be stated, because the technical UN body’s position on the reopening is precisely the element missing from the picture.
What to watch
The fall in prices rests on an expectation: if the temporary channel proposed by Iran and Oman does not take shape, the gap between quotations and actual flows will close in the opposite direction. The first measurable confirmation is not a statement but a count: how many tankers will cross the strait in the days following August 24, when only two passed through.
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