Crude oil falls but remains a third above last year: the Gulf recovers two-thirds of exports

The figure that matters, on August 28, 2026, is not the minus sign next to oil quotations, but the comparison with twelve months earlier. Brent fell to $88.22 per barrel, down 0.34% from the previous day, and the US benchmark crude to $82.82, down 0.86%. On a yearly basis, however, the two benchmarks are up 30.73% and 29.38% respectively (Trading Economics). A fractional daily movement does not offset a gap of that magnitude: the cost of energy remains, for households and businesses on every continent, significantly higher than a year ago.

The reason for the day’s decline lies in the still partial normalization of flows from the Persian Gulf. According to a Goldman Sachs research note cited by Trading Economics, the region’s exports have risen back to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, with volumes estimated between 15 and 16 million barrels per day. The relevant comparison is with the March low, when flows had dropped to 5-6 million: the recovery amounts to ten million barrels per day in five months. The gap that remains to be closed, however, is 7-8 million compared with the pre-war situation, and it is the hardest part, because it depends not on production capacity but on the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz.

Something has moved on this front. Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the division of the strait’s waters and the revenues deriving from them. Tehran, however, specified that the agreement does not entail an immediate reopening: the distinction between the legal perimeter and the actual practicability of the route is the variable markets are pricing in. US President Donald Trump stated that on Tuesday ten million barrels crossed Hormuz and reiterated that the mines have been removed; this is a claim from the US side, reported as such.

The second development of the day comes from Washington and goes in the opposite direction. US stock indices erased their modest opening gains, closing lower, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation remains uncomfortable for monetary policymakers. The two-year Treasury yield rose 0.12 percentage points to 4.35%, the ten-year to 4.72%, and the implied probability of a rate hike in September went from about 35% to about 55% (Edward Jones). On this matter the news currently comes from a single source (Edward Jones’ daily market recap based on FactSet data); no independent confirmation available.

The two movements are linked precisely by that 30% year-on-year increase in crude. An energy price that remains a third above levels of a year ago continues to fuel consumer prices through transport and production costs, and narrows the central bank’s room for maneuver. The recovery of Gulf flows works in the opposite direction, but on a timeline that does not coincide with that of monetary policy meetings: the full reopening of Hormuz depends on a negotiation, while the jump in probability of a September hike played out in a single session.

For those reading these figures outside the United States, the most immediate consequence concerns the cost of dollar-denominated borrowing: two-year yields at 4.35% affect the refinancing of debt denominated in the US currency, particularly for energy-importing economies that are simultaneously paying more expensive crude and more costly debt. The gap of 7-8 million barrels per day compared with pre-war volumes remains the measure of how much longer that double cost could last.

Sources: Trading Economics (market quotations; Goldman Sachs research note cited by Trading Economics); Edward Jones (daily market recap based on FactSet data).