Bund at fifteen-year highs as crude falls below $90

Two movements are heading in opposite directions in the first week of September: the cost of money is rising, the price of oil is falling. On September 1, the yield on the German ten-year Bund reached about 3.34%, a fifteen-year high, while the US ten-year Treasury approached 4.8%. On the same day gold fell to around $4,360 an ounce, a two-week low, and silver dropped below $65.

On the commodities front, the week closed with Brent at $88.24, down 4.82%, and WTI at $83.9, down 2.83%. Gold, in the weekly reading, remained stable at around $4,371 an ounce: a figure different from that of September 1, because the moment of measurement is different, and the two should not be added together or compared as if they were the same series.

Instrument	Value	Reference
Ten-year Bund	about 3.34%	September 1, fifteen-year high
Ten-year Treasury	close to 4.8%	September 1
Brent	$88.24	first week of September, −4.82%
WTI	$83.9	first week of September, −2.83%
Gold	$4,371 an ounce	first week of September, stable

What analysts say, and who says it. Barclays economists revised their forecasts, indicating two further US rate hikes in 2026, in September and December. For the euro area, strategists at the same bank expect a further rate hike from the European Central Bank this month, with risks skewed to the upside if energy prices remain elevated and stagflation concerns grow. These are the assessments of an investment bank, reported as such: this newspaper does not formulate its own forecasts and does not provide operational guidance.

The cost of public debt is rising while the commodity that fuels it via inflation is falling: the two legs of the same expectation are not moving together.

OPEC+ and demand. According to sources cited by the specialist press, the OPEC+ alliance was inclined to leave production policy unchanged for October at Sunday’s meeting. The context is that of a path just concluded: in August the group had announced an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September, completing the reversal of about 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts introduced in 2023. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency forecasts a drop of 1.6 million barrels per day for 2026.

What we don’t know. We do not know the formal outcome of the OPEC+ meeting: the stance reported on the eve is not a published decision. We do not know whether Barclays’ expectations will translate into decisions by the two central banks, nor do the available materials contain the dates of their respective meetings. We do not have yield levels updated to today: the figures reported are those from September 1 and from the week just concluded.

For readers following the numbers, the next verification point is twofold: the OPEC+ communiqué on October production levels and the actual decisions on rates, which will show whether the Bund’s 3.34% was an accurate anticipation or an overpricing.

Sources: FIRSTonline; Investing.com Italia; Investimenti Magazine; Work at Wall Street.