Fitch affirms Italy at BBB+, debt expected to peak at 138.2% in 2026
A new story compared to the morning: the agency leaves rating and outlook unchanged, with a deficit estimated below the median of peer-rated countries and debt more than double that level. The next verdict is Moody's on September 25.
On September 11, 2026 Fitch Ratings affirmed Italy’s long-term rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook. The decision is reported by five sources tracing back to the agency’s note: ANSA, Il Sole 24 Ore, Askanews, Open and AGI. The level had been reached in September 2025, when the agency raised the rating from the previous BBB.
An affirmation is not loud news, but the figures accompanying it show where the problem lies and where it does not.
| Indicator | Italy (Fitch estimate) | Median for BBB peers |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 deficit (% of GDP) | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Debt/GDP, 2026 peak | 138.2% | 57% |
The first line is the favorable part: on the annual deficit, Italy is estimated below the median of countries with the same rating. The second line is the heavy part: the ratio between debt and gross domestic product is expected to peak in 2026, with a gradual decline starting the following year, and it remains on an entirely different plane from that of countries with similar ratings.
The safeguard clause on spending
The picture also includes a public finance choice: the government has activated the national safeguard clause, which allows greater budget flexibility on two items for the 2026-2028 three-year period — energy, for 0.6% of GDP, and defense, for 0.9%. This means that part of the additional spending on these items is treated separately from ordinary constraints.
The two sides of the political assessment
Fitch also evaluates the stability of the institutional framework, and it does so in two opposite directions. On one hand it notes that “recent political stability has been a strength.” On the other, it flags a fragmented landscape and growing support for new political groups with populist leanings, which according to the agency could make coalition-building more difficult.
It should be stated precisely what this second passage is: not an electoral forecast, but a risk factor included in a credit assessment. Rating agencies do not do political science — they measure the probability that an issuer will continue to honor its debt, and government predictability enters that calculation as one variable among others.
What we don’t know
The available material does not report Fitch’s growth estimates for Italy, nor the details of the assumptions on interest rates and interest expenditure underpinning the debt projection. Nor does it report the full schedule of reviews planned for the coming months beyond the next deadline.
That one is set: on September 25 Moody’s verdict on Italy is expected. Until then, the most recent snapshot from an agency remains that of September 11 — rating unchanged, stable outlook, a debt/GDP ratio indicated at 138.2% for the current year.
← Archive · Front page · Past editorials · Report an error · Original article (in Italian)