2027 budget law, the hypothesis of a 33% tax rate up to 60,000 euros and the expired excise duty issue

This is a story the 6:30 edition did not tell: the morning left the Italy section uncovered, and the recovery starts from the tax dossier opening these days.

The starting point is already in force. In 2026 the second Irpef tax rate dropped from 35% to 33% for incomes between 28,000 and 50,000 euros. The priority hypothesis under study for the 2027 budget law is to extend that discounted bracket up to about 60,000 euros, with an estimated cost of around 2.7 billion euros. Alternatively, or in addition, a reduction of the lowest rate from 23% to 22% is being considered, with an indicative cost of 1.5 billion. The reconstruction comes from QN, Fiscomania, PMI.it and LaC News24.

The status of these figures

It must be said right away, because it changes how they should be read: none of the figures above is a formal act. They are working hypotheses reported by journalistic reconstructions based on documents and statements from the executive; the text of the budget law does not yet exist and our material does not contain an official government document confirming them. A rate cited in a hypothesis and a rate written into a bill are two different things, and as long as the gap remains, this newspaper flags it.

The two dates that will decide

The calendar, on the other hand, is certain and does not depend on political intentions. On September 22 Istat publishes the update of national economic accounts: this is the statistical basis on which revenue estimates are built. By October 15 the government must send the Draft Budgetary Plan to Brussels.

In between lies the constraint of the balances. In the final report released on March 2, 2026, the 2025 net borrowing had been quantified at 3.1% of gross domestic product. This is the perimeter within which any tax cut must find coverage, and it is also why the sequence — first the accounts, then the document, then the budget law — is not a bureaucratic formality.

It is, our material adds, the last budget law of the legislature of the Meloni government, with a vote expected in 2027.

The fuel front

The second chapter is more immediate. The extension of the fuel excise duty cut had a deadline set at September 10, 2026: that date has passed. The material available to us reports an increase in oil prices, without indicating the level: the price per barrel does not appear in the sources and this newspaper does not state it. The reported effect concerns maritime connections with the Italian islands.

The reported orientation is a change of approach: no longer a blanket discount on the pump price, but targeted aid, calibrated on income and intended for the most exposed categories, including road hauliers. On the funding side, Matteo Salvini continues to ask for a greater contribution from banks to finance the tax measures. The sources are LaC News24 and the September 13 front-page review by Sarno Notizie.

What we do not know

We do not know whether the government has chosen between the two Irpef hypotheses, nor whether it will adopt both: the cost estimates circulate, the choice does not. We do not know what the income threshold would be for the targeted fuel aid, nor the technical instrument through which it would be disbursed. We do not know by how much the price of crude oil has risen, because the figure is not in our material. We do not know whether, after September 10, a bridge measure exists: it does not appear in our material.

The first possible check comes in nine days, when Istat publishes the updated national accounts: from there it will be possible to measure how much room truly exists for 2.7 billion, or for 1.5, or for both.