Strait of Hormuz, Rubio: "Iran has lost control"

From Athens, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio chose direct words to describe the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran, he said, “has completely lost control” of the maritime passage through which a significant share of the world’s oil transits. The statement comes as tension in the area intertwines with reports of a possible new Pentagon order to US armed forces, instructing them to prepare for a potential resumption of strikes in the Middle East.

On the other side, the Revolutionary Guards — Iran’s Pasdaran — responded with an equally blunt warning: soon, they announced, Iran will close the routes it describes as “illegal” in the strait. The two statements, collected hours apart, capture a clash of narratives even before any clash on the ground: on one side Washington claims control already lost by Tehran, on the other Tehran threatens to seize it back unilaterally.

On the markets front, the effect was immediate. The price of Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel precisely on the heels of reports about the Pentagon order, according to what was reported by Il Sole 24 Ore based on information circulated by Axios. It is a movement that fits into an already nervous picture for energy commodities, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining one of the most sensitive points on global crude oil routes.

The two statements — Rubio’s and the Revolutionary Guards’ — do not merely describe a state of affairs: they are also, evidently, tools of mutual pressure. Rubio speaks from a declared position of strength, emphasizing that Iran would have lost the ability to exercise effective control over the passage. The Revolutionary Guards respond by claiming a future capacity for action, promising to shut down those very routes that Washington describes as now beyond Tehran’s control.

It is not possible, based on the information available, to establish a direct link between the two statements and a single triggering event in recent hours: what remain are two public statements, of opposing signs, chasing each other on the same day. What is verifiable is the effect on the markets: the rise in oil recorded immediately after the Pentagon reports emerged confirms how the mere prospect of military escalation in the area is enough to move energy prices, even before anything happens on the ground.

The Strait of Hormuz remains, in this picture, the most sensitive observation point for gauging the temperature of the standoff between Washington and Tehran. Rubio’s words and those of the Revolutionary Guards do not clarify what will happen in the coming hours, but they indicate precisely where the contest is being played out at this moment: not (only) on the ground, but in each side’s ability to convince the other — and the markets — of who truly controls the passage.

The price of Brent crude above $103 remains, for now, the only concrete and measurable data point from this day of declared tension.