France revises second-quarter growth down to zero

The French statistics institute has revised second-quarter 2026 growth downward: from the +0.2% first estimate released at the end of July to a flat quarter-on-quarter change of +0.0%. In the same August 28 publication, first-quarter figures were also corrected downward, to -0.2%: two consecutive negative quarters would have meant a technical recession, and it is the second quarter’s zero that avoids it. Year-on-year, French growth falls to 0.5%, against the +0.7% indicated in the preliminary estimate and the +0.9% recorded in the previous quarter (Epoch Times France, Press Digital, Teleborsa). Insee describes activity as “stable in the second quarter of 2026, after -0.2% in the previous quarter” (transl. from French). The figure has a single origin, the statistical institute’s publication, picked up by several outlets: it is a primary institutional source, not news confirmed by independent surveys.

The revision concerns the national accounts of a single country. The material available for this edition contains no aggregate euro-area data on the second quarter nor revisions published by other national statistical institutes: a comparison between the French outturn and that of other major European countries cannot be made with numbers today, and we do not make it.

The composition of the French quarter is uneven. Household consumption rose 0.3% and exports increased 2.9%, driven mainly by aeronautics; gross fixed investment, by contrast, fell 0.3%. Households’ purchasing power of disposable income dropped 0.5% in the quarter, after -0.1% in the previous period: rising consumption alongside contracting real income implies drawing on accumulated savings, not an improvement in underlying conditions.

On the same August 28, the European Commission released its August business and consumer survey: the economic sentiment indicator rose to 98.4 in the euro area, a gain of 1.3 points, and to 98.2 in the European Union, +1.0 points. Employment expectations also improved, to 98.9 in the euro area (+1.5 points) and 99.0 in the European Union (+1.2 points) (Geagency). These are two measures of a different nature: the first is national accounts data for a closed quarter, the second a survey of expectations among businesses and consumers for the current month. Comparing the two does not show that the European economy has changed direction; it shows that the French outturn and continental expectations for August point in opposite directions.

What remains are the figures published by Insee on August 28: first quarter at -0.2%, second at +0.0%, annual growth at 0.5% after the previous +0.9%, household purchasing power down 0.5%. These are the updated values with which the French government has been working from today, replacing the preliminary estimate from the end of July.